Let's pray that Oxford Police Chief Bill Partridge is wrong. Dead wrong — pun intended.

As the former Calhoun County coroner and a long-time law enforcement officer, Partridge is well versed on the homicide-friendly parts of each year's calendar. One would think his experience would tell him when killings are most likely to occur.

If that's true, then Partridge's opinion offers Calhoun Countians no comfort. Now that summer's in full bloom — and temperatures are sweltering — Partridge believes the county's homicide rate may follow the deadly trend that often blights a majority of American cities and towns.

Higher temperatures, higher homicide rates.

A front-page story in Sunday's Star examined one of the oddities of 2009: Why has the number of Calhoun County homicides dropped from 20 in 2008 to only two thus far this year? Or, put another way, why has this year seen a steep reduction when compared to the 53 combined homicides in Calhoun County from 2006 to 2008?

As Star reporter Graham Milldrum explained, the answer may be a mixture of good policing, increased community involvement, statistical anomaly, divine providence and good, old-fashioned luck.

Regardless of the reason, it's splendid news for Calhoun County. And that's particularly the case for the city of Anniston, which has recorded the highest number of Calhoun County homicides in recent years.

Experts in the field are quick to highlight the severity of Anniston's pre-2009 homicide rate. David M. Kennedy, director of the Center for Crime Prevention and Control at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York, saddled Anniston's rate with a profound characterization. "Your rate (in Anniston) is really, shockingly high for a city that size," he told The Star.

Yes, we know. That's why this page has been glad to hear of the ongoing efforts of the Stop the Violence program, which held another rally last Saturday at Zinn Park and Carver Community Center. It's one of several grassroots efforts locally that are preaching peace and the value of good decisions.

It's also wise that politicians and law enforcement officials say residents are calling police more often when they see something, or someone, suspicious in their neighborhoods. If homicide is a problem in Anniston — which it has been — it only helps when residents and city leaders make deterring that crime a top priority.

But, alas, pessimism remains. Predicting homicide is an endless, and unsolvable, riddle. Fighting street or gang violence is one thing; trying to prevent domestic disputes that end in gunshots is another. Too often, there's nothing police can do to keep homicides from occurring.

So let's be thankful for 2009. It hasn't been homicide-free, but it's been close. Yet, be wary of the summer months. History says they're a dangerous, deadly time.